BirGün/ANKARA

The “Sectoral Inflation Expectations” survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) for the June 2026 period has once again laid bare the crisis of confidence. Although a decline was observed in the inflation expectations of citizens for the next 12 months, at 46.13 per cent, it was approximately twice the expectation of market participants.

According to the data of the TCMB, the annual inflation expectation for 12 months ahead among market participants dropped by 0.01 points compared to the previous month, falling to 23.81 per cent in June. While the expectation of the real sector remained constant at the level of 33.10 per cent, the household expectation was realised at 46.13 per cent despite a 3.38-point decrease.

The data revealed that the gap in inflation expectations between the market and the citizen has not closed. While financial circles forecast that inflation will be around 24 per cent in the coming year, the real sector expects 33 per cent, and citizens expect an inflation rate exceeding 46 per cent. Even though there was a decline in household inflation expectations in June, the level of expectation still remains quite high.

It is approximately 20 points above the 26 per cent forecast predicted for the end of 2026 in the latest inflation report by the TCMB.

Another striking piece of data in the survey was the proportion of households expecting inflation to fall over the next 12-month period. Accordingly, this rate increased by a mere 0.10 points compared to the previous month, reaching 15.70 per cent. In other words, approximately 84 out of every 100 citizens do not believe there will be a marked decline in inflation over the next year.

The economic administration has aimed to reduce inflation through tight monetary policy and high interest rate practices over the last two years. However, both the TCMB upward revision of its own forecasts and the persistently high expectations of households indicated that the programme has failed to build trust in the eyes of the public.

In its latest Inflation Report, the TCMB revised its inflation forecasts for the years 2026 and 2027 upwards, raising the year-end inflation forecast for 2026 to 26 per cent and its intra-year interim target to 24 per cent. Whereas, in the first Inflation Report published in February 2026, the interim target envisaged for the same period was at the level of 16 per cent.

With the revisions not being limited to this, the interim target for 2027 had been increased from 9 per cent to 15 per cent. The single-digit inflation target, on the other hand, was postponed for another year to 2028, and the 2028 interim target was raised from 8 per cent to 9 per cent.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Enflasyonda beklenti ile tahmin uçurumu: Halk ekonomiden umudunu kesti, published in BirGün newspaper on June 23, 2026.

Kaynak: BirGün