Food inflation will not fall as long as dependence on imports persists
Whilst Turkey ranks first in Europe and fourth globally in terms of food inflation, at an annual rate of approximately 34.45%, the fact that agricultural input inflation – which has not fallen below 28.92% for years – continued to increase in May indicates that citizens will soon eat even smaller portions.
Farmers are unable to earn an income from what they produce, the public cannot fill their shopping bags at the market, and workers are being made to work in the fields for daily wages of 1,000 lira until they collapse. The profits from all this labour, however, go neither to the state nor to the people, but solely to the corporations.
Agricultural economist Fatih Özden emphasised that, unless the corporate-food regime—along with external dependency and contract farming—comes to an end, the inflationary pressure on both producers and consumers will not cease, stressing that the way forward lies in organisation.
Data on the Agricultural Input Price Index (Agriculture-GFE) for May 2026, published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), showed that the rising cost burden in agricultural production and the cost pressure on producers continue.
According to TÜİK’s data, the Agriculture-GFE rose by 0.044% in May 2026 compared with the previous month. The annual increase was recorded at 36.65%.
The index rose by 18.01% compared with December of the previous year, by 36.65% compared with the same month of the previous year, and by 34.20% compared with the twelve-month average.
FERTILISER COSTS STAY HIGH
Looking at the sub-categories in the May data, the highest annual increase was recorded in the ‘fertilisers and soil improvers’ category at 63.56%, whilst the sub-category showing the greatest monthly decrease was ‘energy and lubricants’, with a fall of 4.39%. These were followed by veterinary services and feed costs.
In the breakdown of input costs by main group, the high annual increase in goods and services directly related to production was notable. During this period, the index for goods and services used in agriculture rose by 0.35% compared with the previous month and by 39.29% compared with the same month of the previous year. The index for goods and services contributing to agricultural investment, meanwhile, recorded a rise of 1.04% on a monthly basis and 21.52% on an annual basis.
FOOD INFLATION HAS SHRUNK THE TABLE
Looking at the annual data published by TÜİK since 2024, it can be seen that the Agriculture-GFE has recorded only limited declines for years. Input inflation, recorded at 53.08 in May 2024, reached its lowest level of 28.92% in February 2025. The fact that the index has not fallen below 30% for 17 months has triggered food inflation, shrinking meals for citizens whose purchasing power lies below the poverty line.
AS LONG AS DEPENDENCE PERSISTS, INPUT COSTS WILL NOT FALL
Dr Fatih Özden, an agricultural economist at Ege University, stated that the persistently high levels of input and food inflation over the years are caused not only by the global economic crisis but also by currency fluctuations and dependence on imported raw materials. He noted that the failure of indices to fall in the country’s chronic inflationary environment is a matter of policy.
Regarding fertiliser, whose input costs have not fallen from their peak for a long time, he said: “In recent times, supply issues with fertiliser raw materials due to wars have become a decisive factor. This situation is driving up the cost of both imported fertiliser and fertiliser raw materials,” said Özden, adding, “As dependence on imported agricultural inputs persists, cost increases are directly reflected in production, whilst inflationary expectations are also causing prices to rise. It does not appear that this problem will be easily resolved unless Turkey reduces its dependence on imported inputs in production.”
Noting that the support policies implemented to date have not provided methods to free producers from this dependence on inputs, Özden stated, “Although the Agriculture Act stipulates that support should amount to at least 1% of gross domestic product, this level has not been reached to date. Had the necessary support been provided to producers, significant resources could have been generated for policies aimed at reducing external dependency,” he stated.
THE ‘CORPORATE FOOD REGIME’ IN AGRICULTURE CONTINUES
Referring to reports published recently which indicate that supermarkets and large corporations are gaining increasing influence within the food system, Özden stated that the structure described as the ‘corporate food regime’ in agriculture is increasing corporate dominance across all links in the chain, from input supply to product marketing.
Noting that contract farming has also become one of the key tools of this system, Özden continued: “Thanks to this model, companies are able to obtain the products and quality they desire without having to bear the risks of production, land costs or the social security of agricultural workers. The practice of contract farming needs to be re-examined.”
Özden explained that whilst companies used to be involved in agriculture through the supply of inputs at the start of production and the purchase and sale of produce at the end, today food companies are directly intervening in the production process. “Through contract farming, companies bind farmers to themselves, enabling them to source the raw materials they require, in the desired quality and at the desired time. The production risk, land and labour, however, remain the responsibility of the producer. For this reason, contract farming practices – which are frequently promoted in agricultural policies – need to be seriously questioned, he said.
A ROLE FOR AGRICULTURAL CHAMBERS
Arguing that the way out of this predicament in agriculture lies in organisation, Özden concluded by saying: «The importance of farmers’ organisations is frequently emphasised, but how this is to be achieved is also a significant issue. Agricultural Chambers must not limit themselves to merely announcing prices; they must play a more active role in the struggle for farmers’ rights and in shaping agricultural policies.»
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EXPLOITATION IN ALL CORNERS OF AGRICULTURE
Tea: Reactions continue to mount in the Black Sea region to the fresh tea purchase price of 35 TL declared by ÇAYKUR. Farmers have been protesting against both the purchase price and the quota restrictions ever since the price was announced, criticising ÇAYKUR for setting the price too low and for implementing the quota system. Farmers who were left with unsold produce due to the quota system were forced to sell their crops to companies for less than 35 lira.
Cereals: The Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) pricing of 16,500 lira per tonne for pasta and bread wheat, and 12,750 lira per tonne for barley, has left farmers below their input costs. Whilst reactions have continued since the announcement, the quota system imposed on cereals due to the increase in harvest has left farmers at the mercy of traders. Some farmers have had to sell their produce to the TMO at the set price, which is well below their costs, whilst others have had to sell it to traders for as little as 11–12 lira.
Cherries: Although cherry farmers had a bountiful harvest this year, they did not receive a fair return for their labour. Some farmers could only sell their produce for 15 lira, whilst others managed 40 lira. Whilst cherry prices rose by 247.8% from the field to the shop, farmers remarked, “Under the AKP government, no matter what we do, the farmer never comes out on top.”
Agricultural workers: In the mining region of Kınık, İzmir, whilst employers leave miners to go hungry, women from local households are being forced into agricultural labour under harsh conditions. Seasonal female workers harvesting maize husks are being exploited through low daily wages, insecure employment and long working hours. Workers, who are paid 1,000 lira a day and work from 08.00 in the morning until 17.00 in the evening with a one-hour break, are granted neither meals nor the right to an extra break. The agricultural workers, 80 per cent of whom are women, said they frequently fainted from the heat.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Dışa bağımlılık sürdükçe gıda enflasyonu düşmez, published in BirGün newspaper on July 21, 2026.
To read the full story from the source: BirGün
